The meeting of yesterday brought new evidence

If you limited the judgment on gold in the evolution of the near and Middle East of the end of geopolitical environment, force would be that the yellow metal has still beautiful days before him. The meeting of yesterday brought new evidence. Reaction of challenge open to sanctions decided by the United Nations on the Iranian nuclear dossier Tehran did rebound to 630 $ an ounce in session of most valuable prices. "Investors in gold seem motivated both by the continuation of the conflict in Iraq, the regional spillover possible civil war between Shiite and Sunni, the price of higher energy, the rise of violence in Afghanistan, Iran's nuclear efforts, the decline in the production of gold in South Africa, the discrete resumed purchases of jewelry and other fears.summarizes John c. Tumazos, at Prudential. But Tuesday found recovery was not enough to bring out the gold prices of between 600 and 650 $ tunnel in which it is locked since the end of October.

Indian consumption down

"The area of 624-628 dollars remains, from the technical point of view, a large resistance." "It is unlikely that gold will be able the sustainably exceed this week," Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Rossbach Heraeus in analysis. Among the elements which do not allow the course to really take off, there are including the decline of Indian consumption of physical metal. Paul Walker, GFMS limited, the Indian request should indicate less than 700 tons in 2006, against 750 tonnes a year earlier. The past year has been, according to this expert, "record price of gold in rupees." and their volatility Also, two European Central banks were placed on the market last week, 27 tonnes of metal. This volume goes far beyond the weekly average. In 2005, the official gold sales were 7 tonnes per week on average.

However, the end of may not be representative of the longer term trend. For Merrill Lynch, which yet reduced from 625 to 603,35 dollars an ounce the average course envisaged for 2006, the ounce of gold should be exchanged on average 675 dollars next year. In 2008, the anticipation of the business bank has revised upward of $ 50 to $ 650. "Our forecast for a price higher in 2007 than in 2006 is motivated by the rebound of derived demand for jewellery sector, sales fell by central banks and uninterrupted growth of the demand for gold as investment vehicle", indicate the economists for Merrill Lynch.

Jon Bergtheil, at JP Morgan, expected in 2007 at a request of jewellery rose by 3.3 to 2.640 tonnes. This year, on the other hand, consumption of gold in this crucial sector would have marked a decline of 5.8, 2.556 tonnes. But he will have until 2008 that the demand for the manufacture of jewellery returned to 2005 levels. The central banks, for their part, should market in 2007, 460 tons of yellow metal, against 480 tonnes probably in 2006 and 656 tonnes in 2005. Finally, next year, the demand for gold for investment could more than double, for up to 320 tonnes. At the same time, the overall supply of metal is expected virtually unchanged, at 3.890 tonnes (3.910 tonnes in 2006). Thus, in turn, Jon Bergtheil table on an average price of the precious of the order of 678 dollars an ounce.