Compromised last July with the highest euro to 1

The year of the presidential election in the United States is usually favorable to the dollar. A study of ING showed that on the last five elections marked by a change of President since Jimmy Carter in 1976 the European currency gave ground to the greenback. Compromised last July, with the highest euro to 1.60 dollar, this scenario today is force. Yesterday, the motto of the fifteen is exchanged against 1,2668 dollar, totalling and a loss of about 13 since the beginning of the year. A number of strategists believe the dollar should continue its rise in the coming months and even reach a level of parity with the euro.

Defensive withdrawal

The aversion to risk caused by the financial crisis and the threat of global recession nevertheless are critical factors explaining the rise of the dollar since mid-July. "The analysis of capital structure shows that the United States invest on European actions and emit in the short term on the bond market;" "in times of crisis, there is logically a conducive to U.S. currency repatriation movement", said Claude Mattern, at BNP Paribas. "The strong need for dollars on the market accelerate the unwinding of the investments in euros," he added.

In addition, with the prospect of a global economy in Bern, investors believe more in the ability of the US rebound, with his more aggressive policy. Indeed, Monday, the index of Directors for the purchase of the US manufacturing sector, below expectations, has not prevented the greenback regain a bit of height against the euro. The European Commission announced earlier in the day that the Continent was probably entered into recession. The European situation feeds concerns higher than that of the first economy in the world.

Purchasing power

Encouraged by this situation, the fate of the greenback also depends on the verdict of the ballot box. According to a study by economists, historically, the political alternation in the United States is positive for the dollar. A victory for the Democratic candidate would therefore be good augurs, so Obama seems better at enhancing the confidence of consumers. Dresdner team notes that the sense of the household, calculated by the University of Michigan, has never been as low before a presidential election, which strengthens the hypothesis of a defeat of the ruling party. "While the approach more liberal Republican McCain, from a strictly economic view point, should promote more sustained growth, the fiscal package for the Obama Democrat should further stimulate consumption", judge Tom Levinson, at ING. The strategist also considers that the Democratic candidate, if elected, will lead a less aggressive foreign policy, reverse what the margin keep prices of oil at lower levels and therefore benefit the dollar, in view of the correlation that exists between the currency and the black gold.

"A victory of Barack Obama should be rather beneficial to the greenback, but these effects materialize later", said Michael Klawitter, in Dresdner. "The impact of the election this week likely to be minor in relation to those that will have the decisions of the central banks". The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) render their verdict on interest rates Thursday. The market anticipates a reduction of the rent of money by 50 basis points in both cases, but speculation remains vivid. The report on us employment Friday also announced as a major catalyst.