Rexecode today organizes its 3rd meetings of growth on the theme "reform to move forward", in which the Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin will intervene. Michel Didier present the problem of this event, developed in the book "tomorrow employment if...". "(Economica-Rexecode).
The French want to more purchasing power and employment. The answer is economic growth. Barriers to growth is a major objective of economic policy. The only way to get there is to fully mobilize all of our production factors and make our economy more efficient.
For the moment, we are not in the good path. Gross domestic product per capita, i.e. the standard of living of the French, increased by 2.5 per year from 1970 to 1980. At this rate, the standard of living doubled in a generation. This rate returned to 2 over the Decade, 1980s then to 1.6 per year from 1990 to 2000 finally a little less than 1 per year from 2000 to 2005. 1 Per year, it should be three generations to double the level of life. Public expenditures, which are essentially of the immediate collective consumption is increasingly funded by deficit, a postponement of the deadlines, and an increase in public debt. How this debt will be repaid if the growth of our economy is not recovering
The conclusion is that the French economic machine works with a too low yield, because three workings of our economy do not work. First part seized: global growth is strong, but French exports IFWU not on global expansion. Over the past three years, world trade increased by 27, exports of only 3.
Second part: the total French domestic demand has been pretty good in the recent period, including in 2004. But our national production does not follow. Between 2002 and the first half of 2005, the internal demand for industrial products increased by 8, imports of industrial products increased by 13 and the production of only 3.
Third part: the transmission belt between growth and employment patina. After a period of increase in the "content in employment growth" due to exceptional circumstances, the French economy is its usual mechanisms. Growth results in too little employment.
How to boost our economic growth Increase again the public deficit would push households save more (and save) and it would be more deeply unfair for generations who would be postponed to load. Seek increased wages, beyond the General pace of economic growth, "forced" may cause a fugitive upturn in consumption, but would quickly lead to a decline in competitiveness, investment and ultimately growth itself, and employment. Certainly may regret the New Deal era where artificial same stimulus of demand was to initiate a sustainable expansion. This is more work to countries such as ours in a global market economy that way. It is typing better opportunities for the huge global demand, it is better adjusting the inner workings of the economy that we can approach the 3 growth objective that must be our cap.
The panorama of recent reforms shows that the France starts to move. In many areas, waiting for a long time and reforms considered even as unthinkable it not long ago, are engaged. New regulations are implemented in the areas of pensions, social protection, economic initiative, enterprise creation, former public monopolies, of industrial policy. The year 2006 will be the first major reform of the budget of the State since 1959 and an embryo of debate even introduced also conflicting that the contract of employment and taxation topics. There is a beginning of acceleration of reforms. But it must go further.
The way chosen so far by the France to fight unemployment, to the Elimination of young and old, the sharing of the hours of work or their rationing, "restorative redistribution" intended to increase correct money public dysfunction markets that one has oneself created is a path to nowhere. Our public expenditure (total expenditure of higher education, research and public investment) forward-looking are gradually crowded out by the inexorable rise of current loads of management and redistribution.
Two tracks are necessary to us. The first is a massive redeployment of public credits since passive expenditure towards investments turned towards the future, which will impose sacrifices. The second is an increase in the overall performance of the France machine by measures cost not budget frees up one by one the natural workings of the economy, short "by better walk markets": market services, labour market.
Unemployment persists and seems to be rooted in our society. It's yet to us the uprooting. Remind us that there is a quarter of a century, we thought all that inflation was permanently anchored in our economy, the only hope of economic policy was to control the pace by the price controls and constant administrative regulations. But inflation has disappeared at the same time as the control of prices. This is the same Copernican revolution undertaking market labour, on the market for goods and services and in the large administrative machine. The challenge is to reconcile two necessities also essential: on the one hand, increase the capacity for innovation and response of businesses anchored on our territory to the changes in the world that they have not mastered to ensure youth that they will quickly find a job and the less young they never permanently remain without a real and useful activity. It passes by a public more effective employment service and a better functioning of markets. Beyond circumstances that he hoped cyclically, if the reform effort continued and amplified to increase the efficiency of markets, the end of the French unemployment may become a reality.